Three developments shaping Africa’s strategic choices
This week’s developments are about more than infrastructure, currencies and foreign aid. At their heart lies a harder question: who controls Africa’s energy, financial systems, data and natural resources, and on whose terms?
1. Kenya: Dangote breaks ground on a $16 billion East African refinery
On 30 September, Aliko Dangote joined President William Ruto in Lamu County to break ground on the Dangote East Africa Petroleum Refinery—the largest foreign direct investment in Kenya’s history. Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni and Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed were among the regional leaders in attendance.
Designed to process 700,000 barrels of crude a day, the facility would rank among Africa’s largest refineries and become the biggest in East and Central Africa. Plans also include a 1,000-megawatt power plant, with the wider complex expected to draw fertiliser, chemical and packaging industries to Lamu Port. Dangote says construction will take about 40 months, while Reuters reports a 2030 completion target. At the height of construction, Ruto and Dangote say the project could employ about 60,000 people.
The project is strategically significant because East Africa still depends heavily on imported refined fuel. It is also explicitly regional: Dangote has reportedly offered neighbouring governments a combined 30% stake.
But the ambition comes with unresolved questions. The first is crude supply: the source of the oil has not yet been made clear. The second concerns land and community rights. A group of 133 Lamu residents has taken the matter to the High Court, which has ordered that parts of the site be preserved while the case is heard. Environmental groups have also warned of possible risks to Lamu Old Town, a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
ARR Perspective
The real story is bigger than oil.
Africa cannot industrialise sustainably if it keeps exporting raw materials and importing finished products.
Dangote’s Kenyan investment is an African-led attempt to move up the value chain. Notably, Kenya is not a major oil producer. As Dangote put it, Singapore does not produce a single drop of oil, yet it is a refining hub. Value addition depends on the ecosystem around a resource, not just on owning the resource.
For Zambia, the lesson is direct:
Copper alone will not industrialise Zambia. The country must build the energy, transport, processing and manufacturing ecosystems around its resources.
The Lamu test will also be a governance test. Industrialisation that bypasses the people who live on the land will not be sustainable either.
2. Ghana: Cedi-to-yuan payments challenge dollar dependence
Ghana is testing a simpler way to pay for Chinese imports. Under the pilot, businesses can settle transactions in Chinese yuan directly from their cedi accounts, instead of first converting their money into US dollars.
The rail behind it is China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). On 5 August 2026, Stanbic Bank Ghana became the first bank in the country with direct CIPS access, after Bank of Ghana approval. Speaking at the 132nd Monetary Policy Committee briefing, Governor Johnson Asiama confirmed that Stanbic is piloting the arrangement for importers and that GCB Bank is building a similar one.
The logic is simple. China is Ghana’s largest trading partner, yet much of that trade still passes through the dollar. Importers therefore face two currency conversions, and two sets of commissions for each payment. A direct cedi-to-yuan route removes one conversion and could ease pressure on scarce dollar liquidity. The Bank of Ghana also plans to engage the People’s Bank of China over Beijing’s zero-tariff offer to African countries.
Does Africa need the dollar for every transaction?
Not necessarily.
Alternative settlement routes can reduce foreign-exchange pressure, lower transaction costs and give African countries more flexibility in trade.
But this should not be read as “Ghana abandoning the dollar.” It is better understood as diversification of payment infrastructure.
ARR Perspective
The currency question is ultimately a question of sovereignty.
As Africa trades with several global powers, it will need multiple payment channels and stronger domestic and regional financial infrastructure.
There is a caution. CIPS is China’s rail, governed by the People’s Bank of China. Moving from one external dependency to another is not sovereignty. Real optionality comes when African-owned rails, such as the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) and strong national switches, sit alongside the global ones.
The future may not be about replacing the dollar with the yuan.
It may be about Africa having the freedom to choose how it settles its own trade.
3. Zambia–US health agreement: A new test of strategic partnership
Zambia says negotiations have concluded on a five-year health financing agreement with the United States worth about US$1.5 billion, clearing the way for signature. Health Minister Professor Roma Chilengi told ZNBC on 4 October that the revised memorandum addresses Zambia’s concerns and could be signed this week. Washington, however, has not yet publicly confirmed the changes.
The headline figure deserves care. Earlier drafts put the US commitment at about US$1.012 billion, with Zambian co-financing on top. Prof Chilengi now describes US$1.5 billion from Washington, with the annual amount falling as Zambia raises its own health spending.
The biggest shift concerns biological specimens. An earlier draft would have required Zambia to share specimens gathered through its disease-surveillance system with the United States. That provision has now been removed: no specimens will leave Zambia under the agreement. Zambia also sought clearer rules on intellectual property and benefit sharing if research using Zambian specimens produces new medicines or vaccines.
Just as important, Foreign Minister Mulambo Haimbe says the earlier linkage between health funding and a separate critical-minerals deal has been set aside. Earlier this year, Washington had made health funding contingent on “collaboration in the mining sector.”
The agreement is expected to support HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, maternal and child health, pandemic preparedness and broader health-system strengthening.
ARR Perspective
This is an important development, but the most important part may be how Zambia negotiated it.
Prof Chilengi, who led the Zambia National Public Health Institute before becoming minister in September, brought technical experience to the negotiations. Zambia held its ground for months, despite public pressure, and appears to have secured two important concessions: control over its biological specimens and the separation of health assistance from its copper resources.
Development partnerships should not require African countries to trade away control over health data, biological specimens or strategic minerals.
Africa should welcome international partnerships without surrendering strategic sovereignty.
The challenge now is implementation and verification. The signed text, not the briefing, is what counts. Zambia must also make sure the money builds national health capacity rather than another cycle of dependency.
The Bigger African Story
At first glance, these three developments seem unrelated. Look closer, and a common thread emerges.
Kenya is building energy and industrial capacity.
Ghana is experimenting with financial and monetary flexibility.
Zambia is renegotiating the terms of a major development partnership and keeping its data and its minerals off the table.
Together they reflect a broader shift:
AFRICA IS NEGOTIATING.
For decades, Africa’s place in the global economy has largely followed a familiar pattern: commodities shipped out, finished goods brought in, development financed from abroad and transactions channelled through systems designed elsewhere.
That model is now being challenged.
Africa’s next chapter should not be framed as a choice between China and America, or East and West. The real goal is to build enough economic, technological and institutional strength to work with all partners on better terms.
The question for Africa is no longer “Who will develop us?”
It is “How do we build the capacity to develop ourselves while partnering strategically with the world?”
ARR Bottom Line
Energy sovereignty. Financial sovereignty. Data sovereignty. Resource sovereignty.
These may become four of the defining strategic questions of Africa’s next decade.
The African Renaissance will require more than political independence. It will require economic and technological agency.
Sources
- Kenya: Capital FM, MyJoyOnline / BBC, Africa.com / Reuters
- Ghana: Graphic Online, Modern Ghana, The Star / Xinhua
- Zambia: ZNBC, Lusaka Times, Semafor, Health GAP
